home advantage - analysis

Taking a look at the Home Wins, Away Wins and Draw statistics from the UK Premier League seasons, starting in 1993 up until the end of the 2017 season. 24 completed seasons, 9,746 matches.

46% home wins

4,502 ( 46.19% ) of the 9,746 matches played resulted in Home Wins

27% away wins

2,667 ( 27.37% ) of the 9,746 matches played resulted in Away Wins

26% draws

2,577 ( 26.44% ) of the 9,746 matches played resulted in Draws

Eagle eyed readers will have notices that this percentages don't add up to 100! That's just a rounding error as we have shouted out the percentages without those oddly decimal places.

home, away, draw by season

We like to look at tall the individual seasons when we are calculating statistics, there may may be blips and wobblies we need to take note of. The patterns may changes as the game develops, rule changes, big money and the increase of international players could all affect our calculations, so here are the percentages by season since 1993:

SeasonHome Win %Away Win %Draw %
199346%26%28%
199442%28%31%
199544%27%29%
199649%25%26%
199743%26%31%
199848%27%25%
199944%25%30%
200049%27%24%
200148%25%27%
200243%30%27%
200349%27%24%
200444%28%28%
200546%26%29%
200651%29%20%
200748%26%26%
200846%27%26%
200946%29%26%
201051%24%25%
201147%24%29%
201245%31%24%
201344%28%28%
201447%32%21%
201545%30%24%
201641%31%28%
201749%29%22%

blips in the numbers?

We see blips! The 2016 season Home Wins percentage was only 41%, the adjusted average (all the other seasons excluding 2016 ) was 47%, so quite a big dip in the number of Home wins that season. 2016 was a crazy season, Chelsea slumped to 10th and Leicester followed their relegation fight in the 2015 season to win the title!

If you were following one of those weird betting systems that blindly backs the home team and worse, using an increased stake betting bank the you would have been in even more trouble. The adjusted average number of home wins excluding 1993 - 1995 as there were more games played then is 177, in 2016 there were only 157 Home wins and that 20 match dip would have killed any of these daft systems even more effectively than a normal season would.

home wins percentages by season

OK, so the blips don't look very blippy when you look at the data in a graph - unless you change the scales on the axes to show between 40 and 50%, then the blips look extremely blippy! Statistics and graphs can be fiddled around with to show data in a way that the stats-wizard wants you to see, beware of statistics! This is the same set of data shown above:

In the next section we will look at bookmakers odds and home wins.