promoted teams flying start?
One of the 'well known facts' about football is promoted teams do really well when they first start playing in the Premier League, as they are fit and full of confidence. Their results in the early part of the season are much better than in the later stages. There have been many betting systems sold to punters based on this 'fact'. As the new season is just about to start, now would probably be a good time to have a look at those stats before we place any bets on Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield the new 2018 season members of the Premiership.
Is this 'fact' actually true? Let's have a look at the data.
promoted teams overall wins
Teams promoted to the Premier League from the Championship have won on average 26.66% of the games they played in.
Here are the Percentage Win results by season:
first 5 matches
On average, the promoted sides won 25.60% of their first 5 games, whoops! That's not going to help prove the well known fact, maybe it's fake news?
Win percentages by season, compared to the rest of the season:
That's a bit all over the place and there is no clear pattern showing that the promoted sides are fast out of the traps!
first 10 matches
Let's have a look at the dat for for the first 10 matches, maybe the promoted sides will have settled down and be more comfortable playing in the top tier? The average win percentage is 27.40%, compared to the 26.6% overall win percentage achieved by promoted teams = no difference really!
The statistics prove that the well know fact about newly promoted teams is not true. The differences are statistically non-existant, so we can reject about any super betting systems that rely on the 'bounce factor', like most of the systems folks will try and sell you, they are daft and will lose all your hard earned money!
You could pick selective seasons to 'prove' that promoted sides fly out of the traps, and the unscrupulous system touts will do just that. In 1993, 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011 the promoted sides won 40% of their first 10 games, that sounds good! But, in 2005, 20087, 2008 , 2013 and 2015 they got a strike rate of less than 20%.