newly promoted teams survival rates

Since the Premier League started in 1993 there have been 80 occurrences of teams promoted from the Championship to the top tier of English football. 34 of these teams, 42.5%, have not survived their first season in the Premier League.

So, going on previous form, it's likely that at least one of this season's newly promoted teams; Norwich City, Sheffield United and Aston Villa will be dropping back down to the Championship next season.

In the 27 season of the Premier Leagues there have only been 4 seasons where all the newly promoted teams went on to a second season in the league.

Number of newly promoted teams relegated by season:

SeasonIn and Out
19931
19941
19952
19961
19971
19983
19992
20001
20011
20020
20031
20042
20052
20061
20072
20082
20091
20101
20111
20120
20130
20141
20152
20161
20172
20180
20192

1997-1998 was a really cruel season for the newly promoted teams, all three were sent straight back down Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace were all relegated.

what are the odds?

In the 27 seasons there have been 82 relegation spots available ( there was 1 extra relegation place in the 1995 season when the number of teams was reduced to 20 ), 34 (41.46%) of those relations have been awarded to newly promoted teams, so the 'fair odds' on any newly promoted team being relegated would be 1.71 to 1 ( 0.71 decimal odds ). The 'fair odds' on picking one of the teams to be relegated would 3 times those odds - 5.13 to 1 ( 4.14 decimal )

To calculate odds we take the number of events divided by the number of subjects ( the probability of the event) and that fraction divided by the number of non-events divided by the number of subjects ( the probability of the non-event). So the formula for odds is p / (1 - p).

The current best odds available for the new boys being relegated are:

Sheffield United 4/5 ( 0.8 decimal )
Norwich evens (1 .0 decimal )
Aston Villa 23/10 ( 1.3 decimal )